AGP Executive Report

Copper: Prices climbed to about $14,475 a tonne, supported by Chinese buying and supply risks. Workers at Antofagasta’s Centinela mine say a strike could curb output from November, though the company has played down the impact. Telecoms: Telefónica and KKR are reportedly preparing to sell Chilean wholesale fibre operator OnNet Fibra for up to €1.8 billion. The network reaches 5.2 million homes. Critical Minerals: Aclara and CAP opened a demonstration plant for rare-earth metals and alloys, advancing efforts to develop more processing capacity in Chile. Public Finances: Chile’s 2027 budget plan includes a request to borrow up to US$25 billion. Codelco: The state copper miner is investigating potentially overstated production figures for 2024 and 2025.

Critical Minerals: Aclara Resources and CAP opened a Chilean demonstration plant to turn rare-earth oxides into metals and alloys, while Hot Chili reported more shallow copper-gold mineralisation at La Verde ahead of a planned resource estimate. Copper: KGHM and South32 launched a US$725 million Chile expansion; meanwhile, Codelco is probing potentially overstated 2024–25 production figures, and labour tensions at major mines are adding to supply concerns. Seafood: Chile’s fishmeal and fish-oil raw material intake improved in August, but global fishmeal output tracked by IFFO was down 45% year on year, with 2026 supply forecast to hit its lowest level in a decade. Digital Commerce: dLocal is enabling LinkedIn members in Chile and three other Latin American markets to pay by local-currency card.

Copper: Hot Chili reported broad, shallow copper-gold hits at La Verde, including 188 metres grading 0.56% copper equivalent, ahead of a resource estimate expected later this year. Copper also rose as Chinese trading resumed and a strike at Antofagasta’s Centinela mine raised supply concerns. Mining Investment: KGHM and South32 launched a US$725 million expansion in Chile, while Aclara and CAP inaugurated a metals and alloys demonstration plant. Public Finances: Chile’s 2027 budget plan seeks authority to borrow up to US$25 billion. Codelco: The state miner is investigating signs that its reported 2024 and 2025 copper production figures were overstated.

Copper Watch: Codelco is investigating claims that its 2024 and 2025 copper production figures were overstated, raising questions about the reliability of reported output. Mining Investment: KGHM and South32 have launched a US$725 million copper expansion in Chile, while Aclara and CAP opened a metals and alloys demonstration plant. Public Finance: Chile’s 2027 budget plan seeks authority to borrow up to US$25 billion. Trade and Tourism: British Airways is restoring nonstop London–Buenos Aires flights and adding daily service to Santiago, boosting air links with the UK. Food Exports: Chilean supplier Frutas y Hortalizas del Sur faces an expanded US recall of frozen berry products after FDA investigators found missing records. Technology: Subtel and OnLab are promoting industrial applications for 5G and 6G.

Copper & Mining Watch: Chile’s Codelco is investigating possible over-reported copper production for 2024-2025, including claims that the same material may have been counted by more than one division—an issue that could add financial and reputational pressure as the miner audits its output. Maritime Trade & Climate: Drought in the Panama Canal is rerouting shipping, and Chile’s Strait of Magellan saw traffic jump more than 70% in August and September as vessels avoid delays and fees. Rare Earths in Chile’s Supply Chain: Aclara is expanding its Louisiana rare-earth separation plans (Project Dynamo) to include yttrium, gadolinium and samarium, using feedstock tied to its ionic clay deposits in Chile and Brazil. Chile-focused ASX Updates: Hot Chili confirmed its Costa Fuego copper-gold resource/reserves are unchanged and moved to full ownership of the San Antonio deposit; Capstone Copper set its September-quarter results date for late October; Power Metallic discussed progress toward a PEA for its Nisk/Lion projects in Quebec. Food Safety: A Chilean supplier’s frozen organic berry recall expanded again in the US over possible E. coli contamination, affecting more Walmart and Trader Joe’s products.

Chile’s Budget Watch: Chile detailed its 2027 Budget and asked for authority to incur up to $25bn in debt, keeping fiscal planning front and center for markets. Mining & Metals: KGHM and South32 launched a US$725m Chile copper expansion, while Metso won a Chile thickener modernization order—both signals of continued capex in the sector. Energy Storage: Turbo Energy brought 62.5 MWh of intelligent storage online across three industrial sites, adding momentum to Chile’s broader clean-energy buildout. Corporate Moves: Europastry bought a majority stake in Chile’s Alicomer, a reminder that food manufacturing M&A is still active. Data Centers & Water: A new study flags that data-center growth is spreading environmental pressure beyond the US, with Chile among the countries facing high water stress—an issue that will matter for permitting and local communities. Global Finance Calendar: Kinross will report Q3 results on Oct. 28, with the company listing operations including Chile. Trade & Critical Minerals: India and Chile face hurdles clearing a critical-mineral track in CEPA talks, while Chile also pushes for a High Seas Treaty HQ bid.

Chile Budget Watch: Chile’s President José Antonio Kast unveiled the 2027 Budget Law, proposing net spending of 105.8 trillion pesos (+1.5% vs 2026) and asking Congress to authorize debt up to US$25bn—higher than prior ceilings. Lithium De-risking: CleanTech Lithium validated Laguna Verde’s process flowsheet via a pilot run in Santiago, producing lithium carbonate up to 99.75% purity and supporting a 15,000 t/y plant path toward a definitive feasibility study. Mining & Exploration: FMR Resources started its maiden diamond drilling at La Lorena (La Martuca) in central Chile, with shares jumping as the program targets prospects tied to artisanal workings. Critical Minerals Trade: Chile’s bid to host the High Seas Treaty HQ in Valparaíso remains in focus after earlier marine-park expansion brakes under Kast, with the government reaffirming the treaty ambition. Regional Business Context: Chilean firms also sit in a wider commodities and trade backdrop as copper sentiment reacts to supply worries and macro signals, while Chile’s critical-minerals diplomacy continues to face hurdles in broader CEPA-style talks. Science & Data Economy: Chile-based researchers helped confirm the youngest known exoplanet, Elias 2-24b, using reanalyzed coronagraph data—another reminder of Chile’s growing research footprint.

Brazil Election Shock: Right-wing Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro surged ahead of Lula in Brazil’s first round, setting up an Oct. 25 runoff and likely boosting market sentiment on expectations of tighter fiscal policy. Regional Political Shift: Coverage links Brazil’s result to a broader rightward turn across Latin America, with implications for trade and ties beyond the region. Chile Business & Trade: Metso won a ~EUR 16m thickener modernization order in Chile, aimed at higher throughput and better water recovery for mining operations. Mining Pipeline: Power Metallic launched a preliminary economic assessment for its Nisk polymetallic project in Quebec, with engineering work targeted for H1 2027. Energy Finance: Atlas Renewable Energy received LatinFinance awards for a roughly USD 3bn refinancing covering assets across Brazil, Chile and Mexico. Entrepreneurship & Gender: A GEM report finds women are active in high-potential entrepreneurship but far fewer reach the established stage. Food & Sourcing: Chilean farmed salmon remains a key U.S. supply source, and retailers are being urged to highlight origin labels to drive demand. Tech & Consumer Costs: Apple One subscription prices rose in multiple European countries, with Chile among markets previously affected.

Salmon Relocation Watch: Cooke Chile has filed two new USD 6m proposals with Chile’s SEA to relocate parts of its Aysén grow-out centers, consolidating Atlantic or coho production into new sectors—pushing ahead despite prior governmental delays. Copper Price Drivers: Global buyers are paying “any price” for copper and aluminium as supply constraints tighten, with Chile’s own operational bottlenecks cited alongside other major mining disruptions. Green Minerals Deal: Chile and Indonesia are exploring a Green Minerals Partnership MoU, including joint projects, green mining tech, and battery/EV ecosystem cooperation tied to Codelco and Freeport Indonesia. Brazil Runoff Ripple: Brazil’s election heads to a Oct. 25 runoff after Flávio Bolsonaro led Lula in the first round—raising regional political and market expectations that can spill into trade and investment flows. Falklands Trade Link: The Falklands Chamber of Commerce defended reopening trade with Chile’s Magallanes region, saying the Punta Arenas business push only “counts” once cargo starts moving by sea. E. coli Recall (Chile-linked): A Chilean frozen-berries supplier expanded an E. coli recall to include additional Trader Joe’s and Walmart lots sold across multiple U.S. states.

Chile–Falklands Trade: Falklands Chamber of Commerce chief Mike Summers backed reopening trade with Chile’s Magallanes region, saying the Punta Arenas business push only counts as a success once cargo actually starts crossing by sea. Food Safety & Retail: Chilean supplier Frutas y Hortalizas del Sur expanded an E. coli recall to additional Great Value and Trader Joe’s frozen berry lots, warning shoppers to check specific lot codes and “best before” dates. Copper Markets: Copper rose on a softer dollar after weak US jobs data and supply concerns, though sentiment stayed cautious amid industrial weakness signals. AI & Science Policy: SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son warned superintelligence in the wrong hands could be “super dangerous,” while the US and 16 countries endorsed a “Kyoto Vision” push to accelerate AI-driven science. Brazil Election Watch: Brazilians voted in a tight Lula vs. Flávio Bolsonaro race, with runoff risk high and major implications for Latin America’s political and economic direction.

Copper Market: Copper rose on Friday, supported by a softer dollar after weak US jobs data and ongoing supply concerns, though sentiment stayed cautious amid signs of industrial weakness in China. Critical Minerals & Trade: The US and Argentina launched the Andes-Atlantic Corridor to move lithium, copper and other strategic minerals to Atlantic ports, with a financing framework that could mobilize up to $7bn through 2027. Chile–Morocco Diplomacy: Chile backed Morocco’s Western Sahara autonomy plan at the UN, reinforcing prospects for economic and trade cooperation in the region. Chile Food Safety: A Chilean supplier expanded a US recall of frozen organic berries (Great Value and related blends) due to possible E. coli contamination, after an outbreak linked to 17 illnesses. Renewables in LatAm: A report highlights rapid wind buildout across Latin America, with grid constraints and transmission bottlenecks emerging as the main drag on scaling in countries including Chile. Brazil Election Watch: With voting Sunday, Brazil’s race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro is framed as a major test for Trump’s influence in the region.

Copper & Markets: Copper edged up to about $14,374/ton on a softer dollar after weak US jobs data, while traders stayed cautious on China demand and supply tightness. Chile Trade & Diplomacy: Chile and El Salvador backed Morocco’s Western Sahara autonomy plan at the UN, with Chile reiterating support for Morocco’s sovereignty over the whole territory. Critical Minerals Infrastructure: The US and Argentina launched the Andes-Atlantic Corridor to move lithium, copper and other strategic minerals to Atlantic ports, with up to $7bn in financing support through 2027. Food Safety (Chile-linked supplier in US): A Chilean fruit processor expanded a recall of frozen organic berries sold at Walmart and Trader Joe’s after an E. coli outbreak sickened 17 people (6 hospitalized in Florida/Georgia). Energy Transition: A new push for electrification highlights replacing fossil fuels with electricity across transport, homes and industry as COP31 targets rise. Regional Business Context: A Latinobarómetro poll found China viewed more positively than the US across 17 Latin American countries, reflecting shifting influence perceptions.

Brazil Election & U.S. Influence: Brazilians vote Sunday in a high-stakes race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, with Trump’s “Donroe Doctrine” framing the contest as a regional test for U.S. sway over Latin America. Food Safety & Retail Impact: Chile-based Frutas y Hortalizas del Sur expanded recalls of frozen organic berries (Great Value and Trader Joe’s) tied to an E. coli outbreak in the U.S., raising compliance and supply-chain watchpoints for exporters. Mining Deal Watch: Northern Star Resources rejected Gold Fields’ unsolicited takeover approach, setting up a likely revised bid and keeping consolidation pressure on the gold sector. Chile Tech & Startups: Chile’s program offers equity-free grants up to £74,000 for tech startups that set up operations in Chile, paired with a two-year work visa and support services. Cultural & Tourism Spillovers: BTS kicks off its Latin America tour with stops including Chile (Oct. 16-17), with local media projecting major spending effects. Aviation Connectivity: Caribbean Airlines will resume Trinidad–Caracas flights (from Oct. 31) and add Tobago–Toronto service (from Oct. 25), supporting business travel and tourism links. Digital Public Infrastructure: Chile joins the 50-in-5 digital public infrastructure campaign, focusing on digital identity and interoperability across government services.

Copper & Mining: Copper edged higher but stayed cautious as a weaker dollar met worries about demand from high oil prices and industrial weakness in China; Chile’s output also weighed on sentiment after production fell 12.8% y/y in August, while a Chile mine strike threat added supply concern. M&A/Regulation: Reuters reports China’s antitrust regulator asked Anglo American to commit to steady copper concentrate supply as a condition for approving its $54bn Teck merger—highlighting how China can use deal scrutiny to protect smelting feedstock. Trade & Markets (Chile): India is pushing a year-end CEPA with Chile and is also opening formal trade talks with Mexico, aiming to deepen cooperation across minerals, energy, agriculture and tech. Energy & Infrastructure: Chile’s Promigas advanced 2.2 GWh of solar-linked storage, signaling continued momentum in renewables integration. Labor/Disputes: Chilean miners voted to strike at two facilities, raising near-term operational and supply risks. Food & Consumer Safety: A Chile-based firm expanded recalls of Great Value and Trader Joe’s frozen organic berries over possible E. coli contamination; no illnesses reported.

Copper & Chile Supply: Copper rebounded after earlier losses, but the metal is still set for its worst weekly drop since April as Chile’s output fell 12.8% y/y in August and Escondida supervisors rejected a contract offer, raising strike risk. Mining Labor: At Antofagasta’s Centinela mine, supervisors are also ready for strike action, keeping supply concerns front and center. Chile Corporate Calendar: Banco Itaú Chile scheduled its Q3 2026 results release for Oct. 30, with a conference call on Nov. 9. Regional Climate Risk: El Niño is intensifying across Latin America, with UNICEF warning 25.8 million children face very high rainfall-related risks, threatening food, water, health and education. Payments & Crypto Adoption: Exodus launched “Exodus Checkout,” letting merchants accept dollar stablecoins, starting with DIRECTV’s DGO in Argentina and expanding to Chile and other LATAM markets. Trade & Logistics (Falklands): Punta Arenas and Falklands businesses held 822 meetings to support a renewed direct sea link planned for mid-November. Tech/AI Finance: A “speech clock” study suggests voice patterns can estimate chronological age and flag higher dementia risk, though it still needs broader validation.

Banking Calendar: Banco Itaú Chile set its Q3 2026 results release for Oct. 30, with a conference call on Nov. 9 (quiet period starts Oct. 16), giving investors a clear earnings timeline. Payments & Retail Tech: Getnet and Nayax agreed to expand integrated unattended payments across Chile first, then Spain, Portugal, Brazil, Mexico and Argentina—aiming for a single cashless acceptance setup for vending and self-service operators. Mining & Commodities: Chile-linked supply pressure themes keep building: copper demand forecasts point to a structural gap, while Chile’s own copper output is reported to have fallen to the lowest since 2011—raising the stakes for future projects and labor stability. Labor & Industry: Chile’s CUT reaffirmed support for Sahrawi self-determination and urged action over hunger-striking prisoners, keeping union diplomacy in the spotlight. Climate Risk: UNICEF warned 25.8 million children across Latin America and the Caribbean face very high El Niño-related rainfall risks, with impacts expected on food, water, health and schooling. Chile Business Moves: Falabella transferred control of six assets to Mallplaza for $200m, a notable reshuffle in retail real estate.